如何判斷當下的金融風險?
金融(rong)風險(xian)的產生構成對(dui)金融(rong)安全(quan)的威脅,金融(rong)風險(xian)的積累和爆發造成對(dui)金融(rong)安全(quan)的損(sun)害,對(dui)金融(rong)風險(xian)的防(fang)范就是(shi)對(dui)金融(rong)安全(quan)的維護。從總(zong)體上來看(kan),我國的金融(rong)形(xing)勢是(shi)良(liang)好的,金融(rong)風險(xian)是(shi)可控的。然而,我國金融(rong)安全(quan)卻面臨著新的內外環境。
首先(xian),從國(guo)際(ji)(ji)環境來看。整個(ge)世界經濟仍處在(zai)國(guo)際(ji)(ji)金(jin)融(rong)(rong)危機后的深度調(diao)整期,世界經濟總體復蘇疲(pi)弱態勢(shi)尚未明顯改觀(guan),國(guo)際(ji)(ji)金(jin)融(rong)(rong)市場(chang)波(bo)動(dong)(dong)加大,國(guo)際(ji)(ji)大宗商品價格(ge)波(bo)動(dong)(dong),地(di)緣政治等非經濟因素影(ying)響(xiang)加大。金(jin)融(rong)(rong)危機外溢性凸顯,國(guo)際(ji)(ji)金(jin)融(rong)(rong)風險(xian)(xian)點仍然不少(shao)。一些國(guo)家的貨幣政策和財政政策調(diao)整形成的風險(xian)(xian)外溢效應(ying),有可(ke)能對(dui)我國(guo)金(jin)融(rong)(rong)安全形成外部沖擊。如(ru)何(he)趨利避害、順勢(shi)而為,如(ru)何(he)防范各類輸入型金(jin)融(rong)(rong)風險(xian)(xian)對(dui)我國(guo)的影(ying)響(xiang)值得研究。
其(qi)次,從國內環境(jing)來看。我國經濟(ji)運行(xing)仍面臨不少困難(nan)和(he)挑戰,經濟(ji)下行(xing)壓(ya)力較(jiao)大,結構調(diao)整陣痛顯(xian)現(xian),企業生產經營困難(nan)增(zeng)多,部(bu)分經濟(ji)金(jin)(jin)(jin)融風(feng)險特別(bie)是區(qu)(qu)域性、系(xi)統(tong)性金(jin)(jin)(jin)融風(feng)險已有所顯(xian)現(xian)。防范和(he)管控區(qu)(qu)域性、系(xi)統(tong)性金(jin)(jin)(jin)融風(feng)險,將成為我國金(jin)(jin)(jin)融改革與發展的關(guan)鍵。
區(qu)域(yu)性(xing)金融(rong)(rong)風(feng)(feng)險(xian),通(tong)常是(shi)指由(you)個別或部分機構(gou)的(de)金融(rong)(rong)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)在該(gai)區(qu)域(yu)內(nei)傳播(bo)、擴散(san)引起,或者(zhe)是(shi)其他經濟聯系密切的(de)區(qu)域(yu)金融(rong)(rong)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)向本區(qu)域(yu)傳播(bo)、擴散(san)而(er)引起的(de)關聯性(xing)金融(rong)(rong)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)。當前(qian)我(wo)國區(qu)域(yu)性(xing)金融(rong)(rong)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)主要(yao)集中于產能過剩風(feng)(feng)險(xian)、 地方政府(fu)債(zhai)務性(xing)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)、房(fang)地產金融(rong)(rong)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)等領域(yu)。
系(xi)(xi)(xi)統性(xing)(xing)(xing)金(jin)融(rong)(rong)風(feng)(feng)險(xian),通常是(shi)指源(yuan)自(zi)于(yu)金(jin)融(rong)(rong)體(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)(xi)、對(dui)整體(ti)(ti)經(jing)濟產(chan)生(sheng)(sheng)重大(da)(da)沖擊的(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)。系(xi)(xi)(xi)統性(xing)(xing)(xing)金(jin)融(rong)(rong)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)的(de)(de)成因(yin)主要有(you)兩個方面(mian) : 一(yi)是(shi)金(jin)融(rong)(rong)體(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)(xi)內(nei)部的(de)(de)基礎(chu)性(xing)(xing)(xing)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)形(xing)成因(yin)素(su),如金(jin)融(rong)(rong)工具的(de)(de)過度(du)創新和(he)金(jin)融(rong)(rong)市場、金(jin)融(rong)(rong)機(ji)(ji)構在交易(yi)中杠桿(gan)率的(de)(de)大(da)(da)幅(fu)度(du)提高,以及金(jin)融(rong)(rong)機(ji)(ji)構“脫實向虛”傾向等都會(hui)加大(da)(da)金(jin)融(rong)(rong)的(de)(de)脆弱性(xing)(xing)(xing),最(zui)終導致(zhi)(zhi)金(jin)融(rong)(rong)體(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)(xi)在外部沖擊影(ying)響(xiang)下(xia)迅(xun)速崩潰,這是(shi)產(chan)生(sheng)(sheng)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統性(xing)(xing)(xing)金(jin)融(rong)(rong)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)的(de)(de)內(nei)因(yin)。二是(shi)從系(xi)(xi)(xi)統性(xing)(xing)(xing)金(jin)融(rong)(rong)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)產(chan)生(sheng)(sheng)的(de)(de)外因(yin)來看,由(you)于(yu)實體(ti)(ti)經(jing)濟與金(jin)融(rong)(rong)體(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)(xi)密切相關,實體(ti)(ti)經(jing)濟的(de)(de)波(bo)動必然導致(zhi)(zhi)金(jin)融(rong)(rong)體(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)(xi)的(de)(de)更大(da)(da)波(bo)動。當經(jing)濟周期下(xia)行時,金(jin)融(rong)(rong)市場和(he)金(jin)融(rong)(rong)機(ji)(ji)構都將受(shou)其(qi)影(ying)響(xiang),從而使(shi)金(jin)融(rong)(rong)體(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)(xi)深陷系(xi)(xi)(xi)統性(xing)(xing)(xing)危機(ji)(ji)之(zhi)中。 顯(xian)而易(yi)見,金(jin)融(rong)(rong)體(ti)(ti)系(xi)(xi)(xi)的(de)(de)內(nei)在脆弱性(xing)(xing)(xing)和(he)實體(ti)(ti)經(jing)濟發展(zhan)中出(chu)現(xian)的(de)(de)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統失衡(heng)是(shi)導致(zhi)(zhi)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統性(xing)(xing)(xing)金(jin)融(rong)(rong)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)的(de)(de)兩大(da)(da)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)源(yuan)。
靖江起重設備廠專屬定制服務熱線: 唐明儉。